Footsteps Of The Coup In Armenia: Why Now? What Will Happen Next?

FOOTSTEPS OF THE COUP IN ARMENIA:

WHY NOW? WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Dr. Can Kasapoğlu, Director, Security & Defense Program

Zeynep Başaran, Secretary General 

Oğul Tuna, Researcher

 Sine Özkaraşahin, Researcher

What Happened?

On February 25, 2021, a group of top commanders of the Armenian military demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan upon the nation’s heavy defeat in the hands of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the recent Karabakh War.

PM Pashinyan, calling the move a coup attempt, has gathered his supporters to pursue a firm political resistance against the hardliners at the Armenian security establishment. In the meantime, the military has not stepped back. Armenia is on the brink of serious developments.

Causes and Drivers of the Coup Attempt

• The defeat against the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh War, along with the agreement that Prime Minister Pashinyan was forced to sign, have together sparked harsh reactions among the Armenian hawkish figures in the military.

• Pro-Western stance of Prime Minister Pashinyan remains yet another factor causing uneasiness within the traditional Armenian security apparatus, which has a distinctive Soviet-Russian strategic cultural orientation, as well as organic ties to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

• In essence, PM Pashinyan took his office with a popular movement. In the eyes of the Kremlin, such a rise to power in the former Soviet space has been unacceptable since the outset.

• The military alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan has achieved tangible geopolitical gains, exacerbating concerns both in Moscow and Yerevan. The Armenian defense & security elite opts for pursuing a hardliner approach to reverse the momentum. This hawkish and dangerous policy includes preparing for another round of war. In this respect, Armenian generals consider PM Pashinyan to be an obstacle.

Open-Source Intelligence Analysis on the Armenian Coup Attempt

• Although the Russian Federation has not, so far, openly supported the coup, it remains telling that General Tigran Parvanyan, Commander of the Armenian – Russian Joint Group of Forces, was among the generals who called PM Pashinyan to resign. It would be highly unlikely for General Parvanyan to take a stand contrary to Moscow’s political will.

• One of the most critical units, which will determine the course of the coup, is the 5th Corps. Although sub-units of the corps are predominantly deployed outside of the capital, the 5^th Corps’ headquarters is in Yerevan. The Commandant of the 5th Corps, General Smbad Grigoryan, is among the signatory generals who called Pashinyan to resign.

• At present, the Armenian Armed Forces seem to be acting mostly with the unity of command in their doctrinal chain. In case the resistance led by Pashinyan could sustain, it can still cause ruptures at the plotter ranks in the coming days. The coup-in-progress has to race against time and hold the momentum to succeed. Therefore, each day and even hour ahead counts.

• The Armenian Armed Forces’ doctrinal order of battle is centered on five corps and the Russian-Armenian Joint Group of Forces established back in 2017. In the days ahead, the corps commandants’ loyalties to General Onik Viktori Gasparyan, the Chief of Staff, will be a major determinant as to the trajectory of the coup attempt.

• If the coup achieves its objectives, Prime Minister Pashinyan might attempt to leave the country with his family and close circles. The Armenian Air Force (or the military aviation branch under the general staff, as appears officially) and the Air Defense Forces will remain critical in this respect. However, at present, the final word on the airspace control in Armenia belongs to the forward-deployed Russian contingent in the country.

• If the coup prevails, Armenia’s next administration will most probably refuse to comply with the outcome of the Karabakh War and the deal signed by PM Pashinyan. Geopolitically, the incumbent military elite can turn Armenia into a highly-militarized, Russian satellite garrison state. Thus, the unfolding putsch can soon trigger a new round of fighting in the Caucasus. Besides, Armenia under the military rule will make an even more suitable harbor for the PKK terrorist organization to bleed Turkey.

CRITICAL COMMANDERS FOR THE TRAJECTORY OF THE COUP ATTEMPT

	Colonel General Onik Gasparyan	Chief of Armed Forces General Staff
	General Stepan Galstyan	Deputy Chief of Armed Forces General Staff
	Lieutenant General Andranik Makaryan	Head of Department of Military Readiness
	General Tiran Haçaturyan	First Deputy Chief of Armed Forces General Staff
	Major General Arakel Martikyan	Head of the General Staff Intelligence Department
	Colonel Gagik Aslanyan	Head of Military Aviation
	Major General Albert Baghdasaryan	Head of General Staff Mobilization Department
	Colonel Khachatur Khachatryan	Commandant of the Vazgen Sargsyan Military University
	Lieutenant General Karen Abramyan	Head of the General Staff Operations
	Vagharshak Harutyunyan	Minister of Defense
	Arman Sargsyan	Deputy Minister of Defense
	General Jirayr Poghosyan	1st Army Corps Commander
	General Arayik Robertovich Harutyunyan	2nd Army Corps Commander
	General Grigory Hachathurov	3rd Army Corps Commander
	General Artak Bugadyan	4th Army Corps Commander
	General Smbad Grigoryan	5th Army Corps Commander
	General Tigran Parvanyan	Commander of the Armenian-Russian Joint Group of Forces
	Major General Temur Shahnazaryan	Head of Signal Troops